Ukraine war three years on: Europe urged to step up as key ally US wanes

KYIV: Another year of war has passed. Residents of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv have come to expect daily air-raid sirens and explosions to break the silence of nightly curfews.

Soldiers continue to shiver in sub-zero temperatures along a largely frozen frontline. Thousands of Ukrainians continue to die trying to stall incremental Russian progress. 

But the war has also evolved.  

For the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion three years ago, there is serious talk of negotiations to an end.

However, the way talks have been handled so far – with the United States speaking with Russia directly and without Ukraine’s participation – has left many worried about the price of peace. 

“Trump is unpredictable. Nobody knows what's in his head or how his meeting with Putin will go,” said Ukrainian artist Olga Yurkevych. 

US President Donald Trump, eyeing a swift end to the conflict, reestablished links with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call two weeks ago, with both agreeing to a meeting in the future. 

Top diplomats from Washington and Moscow then met in Saudi Arabia, where they agreed to start working towards ending the war in Ukraine.

Neither Ukraine nor other European nations were invited to the talks. 

In contrast, Russia – after years of being shunned and slapped with sanctions by Washington and its allies – now has a seat at the table. 

Analysts said allies were surprised and dismayed by Washington’s diplomatic flip and realignment in relations, although many have already braced for a policy shift under Trump. 

A NERVOUS EUROPE

Rattled by Trump’s moves, European leaders have vowed to increase support for Ukraine, saying Kyiv is facing a critical moment in the war.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Operation Interflex, which supports Ukraine’s armed forces, has trained more than 50,000 Ukrainian troops in the United Kingdom since 2022. 

The European Union has collectively provided Kyiv with about US$50 billion in military aid. 

Ihor Vitek, a retired Ukrainian officer, said: “We should pursue our own policy. If America does not want to help, then let it stay in its own sphere. We need to contact Europe … with the Baltic countries, with Poland, and defend our interests.”

But with Russian forces advancing about half a kilometre every week on Ukrainian soil, more support is needed to hold off Moscow’s offensive, said Jamie Shea, senior fellow for peace, security and defence at Brussels-based think tank Friends of Europe.

“They are advancing … and there is the risk that if the line is not stabilised, Moscow could achieve a breakthrough,” said Shea, who is a former NATO official. 

Last week, the EU agreed to a 16th round of sanctions on Moscow, targeting aluminum, oil exports and banks.

EU lawmakers said the move sends an important signal amid growing fears that Russia and the US could work on a peace plan without European input. 

“We’re steadfast in moving ahead with sanctions and support for Ukraine up until the moment that peace is there, based on good peace negotiations with support of Ukraine and Europe,” said Kathleen Van Brempt, a Belgian social-democratic Member of the European Parliament (MEP).   

Washington has said that Ukraine and Europe will be part of what it calls “real negotiations”. 

However, the relationship between the US and its transatlantic partners is under strain.

Trump has, since his first term in office, criticised NATO members for not contributing enough to their own defence, accusing them of freeloading on American protection. He has threatened to pull out of the transnational military alliance.

He wants European allies to spend at least 5 per cent of annual gross domestic product on defence, up from the existing 2 per cent NATO benchmark. 

Experts said contributing more to military spending will be a test of Europe’s mettle.

“If you have effectively made yourself irrelevant then they will treat you as irrelevant,” said defence analyst Simon Diggins, adding that Europe needs to pull its weight or risk being sidelined by Washington. 

TRUMP’S APPROACH

Just a month into his second presidency, Trump has set up a drastically different relationship with Ukraine from his predecessor Joe Biden.

Under Biden, the US gave more than US$65 billion in military support to bolster Kyiv on the battlefield.

But Trump is looking for a more reciprocal arrangement.

He is eyeing Ukraine’s rare earth minerals – vital for the production of high-tech equipment – to make up for the aid given, while remaining vague on Washington’s security guarantees for Kyiv. 

He has asked for US$500 billion worth of rare earth minerals – a figure Kyiv has baulked at and said is five times higher than the US’ actual military contribution. 

“It’s a demonstration of the new approach of the US,” said political scientist Daniela Schwarzer, an executive board member at German foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung.  

“On one hand, it’s about pulling back from Europe and saying ‘your security is your problem’; and at the same time saying the US is an extremely important power and Trump has made it his personal agenda to lead these negotiations.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said while he understood that signing a deal with the US was "critical", but without explicit security guarantees from Washington, he “can’t sell his country”.

Experts said the Trump administration appears committed to try to recoup what it sees as the financial losses of supporting Ukraine, partly blamed on Kyiv’s alleged failure to come to a settlement sooner.

“I think this is the wrong policy and the wrong accusations of Ukraine. They are accusing the victim, and he is taking our enemy’s side,” said Oksana Krylova, a 50-year-old Kyiv resident.

Trump is looking to broker a speedy peace deal – one of his key campaign promises – and create a diplomatic win, said analysts.

“He wants to be seen as a problem solver. He wants to break different deals with different leaders. Obviously, starting with Russia, one of the most powerful countries in the world, is very important for him,” said Astrid Chevreuil, a visiting fellow at Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.  

“He also wants to show contrast with President Biden and he wants to show he’s able to solve a conflict that has been ongoing for three years and the previous presidency didn’t succeed in doing so.”

THREE YEARS OF WAR

As the war marches into its fourth year, some Ukrainians worry their country will not be able to continue defending its sovereignty without US support, as resources and funds continue to deplete.

“I am not sure if it's right or wrong, but I would agree to some deal already. So many lives were lost, many children and grown-ups died. So many. I would put an end to it,” said 52-year-old local Taisiya Pavlenko.

Aside from concerns about Trump’s dealings with Russia, his return to the White House has brought other challenges for Ukraine as well.  

The freezing of funds to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), responsible for administering civilian foreign aid, has put into jeopardy the survival of Ukraine’s veterans’ programmes, children's education, energy security and even local media.

Kyiv said the defence of Ukraine is essential to the long-term security of Europe and North America.

“Peace through strength” remains Ukraine’s vision: A desire to be equipped and supported diplomatically so it can put itself in the best possible position to force concessions from Russia, rather than be forced into concessions by Russia.

European officials have reiterated they are committed to supporting Ukraine and stepping up defence capabilities, with some warning that the region needs to plan for its own security without the US.

“We cannot count on the US anymore. I’m already for a long time convinced that we need a European army, a European defence union, and what’s happening now convinces me even more,” said Hilde Vautmans, a Belgian MEP of the centrist Renew Europe group.  

However, an EU army is an idea that has divided the bloc's members, with some saying Europe's security challenges are best met by building up the militaries of individual member countries instead.

Ukraine’s allies in Europe have repeatedly said Kyiv needs strong security guarantees, but questions remain over how effective those might be unless backed by American muscle, which Trump appears unwilling to flex for now.