Far-right parties poised to make huge gains as polling opens in EU parliamentary election
In recent years, the European Union has seen a rise of the radical right populist and hard conservative groups, and weakening support for centrist parties.
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BRUSSELS / BERLIN: Millions of voters across the European Union’s 27 member states are heading to the ballot boxes as the European parliamentary election kicked off on Thursday (Jun 6).
The four-day affair is the largest multi-nation election in the world. About 373 million Europeans will vote to decide who serves in the legislative body for the next five years.
Lawmakers and candidates have encouraged voters to go to the polling booths to have their say on how the bloc should operate.
“Don’t take Europe for granted. Shape it and be it. Don’t let others decide your future for you. Go out and vote,” urged EU parliament president Roberta Metsola.
Opinion polls suggest that populist far-right parties are expected to perform particularly strongly, buoyed by a surge in support among young people.
Who makes up the EU parliament?
The EU parliament is a body that has grown dramatically over the years.
The first European elections were held in 1979. Back then, people across nine member states voted to select 410 representatives.
This year, voters across 27 European nations will elect 720 members of parliament (MEPs).
The number of representatives is based on a nation’s size. Germany has the most with 96, while on the other end of the spectrum with six each are Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg.
Europeans heading to the polls will vote for a national political party, but most lawmakers choose to join transnational groups that are united by values rather than nationality.
Elected members will take their seats in mid-July for a first plenary session.
RISE OF THE FAR RIGHT
The EU has been seeing a rise of the radical right populist and hard conservative groups, and a weakening support for centrist parties in recent years.
Two main conservative groups – the Identity and Democracy, and The European Conservatives and Reformists – are set to gain around 17 seats.
If so, they will secure about 144 of the 720 seats available, according to a projection by Washington-based political news organisation Politico.
“They can realistically expect to cross the barrier of one-third seats, which would give them a blocking minority for various legislation that the European parliament is passing,” said Pawel Zerka, a senior fellow at think tank European Council on Foreign Relations.
Conservative campaigns were built largely on criticising the centrist parties which have long dominated the bloc’s levers of power in Brussels.
“Inflation, the explosion of energy prices, immigration and insecurity. My dear friends, all these hardships that we endure are not by chance, but rather the consequences of toxic political decisions that no leader will apologise for,” Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally parliamentary party, told a cheering crowd on the campaign trail. The party is a member of the Identity and Democracy group.
SNAGGING THE YOUTH VOTE
Surveys show that such conservative rhetoric is increasingly resonating with young voters.
In France, 36 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds back the National Rally. In the Netherlands, 31 per cent support the nationalist Freedom party.
In Germany, around 20 per cent of first-time voters are expected to favour the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party.
AfD leader Alice Weidel said: “We don’t need a bureaucratic monster like the European Union that consists of overpaid but under-occupied bureaucrats. If you ask me, I would throw all that baggage out the door.”
What links much of Europe’s far-right is a ramping up of nationalist rhetoric, with slogans like “Limit the EU’s power” and “Rethink Europe” dominating campaign materials.
Professor Klaus Hurrelmann from Germany’s Hertie School of Governance, an expert in youth studies, researched why such messages are landing favourably with a growing proportion of the youth.
“Our studies show that young people aged 14 to 29 are in a sense of dissatisfaction. They are pessimistic and they feel that politics is 'working against us and we feel lost’,” he said.
“(For example, in Germany,) the right-wing AfD has really succeeded in conquering many of the topics that are at the forefront of the thinking and feeling of the young generation.”
SOCIAL MEDIA PLAYS KEY ROLE
Analysts said the sway of social media could just tip the balance of power in Brussels.
Far-right parties are en masse harnessing the power of various platforms – particularly TikTok – to reach young voters in huge numbers, leaving traditional parties playing catch up.
Concerns over TikTok’s data security and algorithm have made centrist EU parties wary of its usage in the past, said MEP Hannah Neumann from the Green party, which advocates a sustainable society with socialist values.
But that mindset is changing. Studies have shown AfD is way ahead in reach in Germany due to social media, compared with other parties.
“For me the crucial moment was when my three teenagers said: ‘Mom, our friends don’t Google anymore, they look at TikTok to get information’,” said Neumann, who is running for reelection.
“Knowing the type of information that is on TikTok, I was like: ‘That’s going terribly wrong’. So, me and many others are trying to (get onboard and) give information that is more factual.”
Up next: EU Commission Presidential polls
The EU parliament is one of the three major EU institutions, but it is the only one whose members are directly chosen by the public, making these elections the most direct way that voters can help influence EU policy.
Elected lawmakers have the power to shape legislation and have a final say on who will be the European Commission (EC) president, a process expected to last until the end of the year.
The EC is the EU’s executive branch. It enforces EU law and the bloc’s budget, and can propose new laws.
The parliament has the power to approve or reject potential candidates. A stronger showing for a party in this week’s polls means it has a greater say on who should get the top job.
This means that candidates – including incumbent president Ursula von der Leyen – often go on the campaign trail with their respective groups.
“When I ask people what it is that they expect from Europe, the answer is always the same. They want a strong Europe. They want a Europe that cares, that protects, and that prospers,” said Ms von der Leyen.
POLARISING THE YOUTH
There are also concerns about how algorithm-based personalised feeds are polarising young people and creating an increasingly hostile political climate.
Germany’s campaign, for example, has been marred by several violent attacks on candidates from the Greens, Social Democrats and Conservative Party. This led Chancellor Olaf Scholz to condemn the acts and call for calm.
“We do not tolerate violence. Anyone who insults or physically harms others must be punished quickly and noticeably. The internet is not a crime-free space,” he said.
Trend lines suggest that regardless of how the far right performs, conservatives had a big impact on the campaign.
Analysts said this calls into question how politicians in the new EU parliamentary term will shape policy around controversial issues like immigration, social welfare, and the debate over further European integration versus national autonomy.
The polls close on Sunday.
