Commentary: COP — just a pointless exercise, or still a vital effort in saving the earth?

The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), held in early December, marked a significant milestone in three decades of climate negotiations, when countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems following a three-year Global Stocktake process.

Held at Expo City in Dubai over two weeks, the conference played host to a record-breaking 100,000 participants, more than doubling the previous record held by COP27 held in Sharm-el-Sheik, Egypt. 

Attendance at COP28 reveals some interesting insights.

The provisional list of participants published ahead of the event showed that there were 25,000 government delegates, 28,000 “party overflow”, and 15,000 from observer organisations. Host country United Arab Emirates (UAE) also invited some 5,000 guests under a new category of attendees. 

A record number of 225 pavilions were hosted by countries and organisations, bringing together an array of climate change leaders, experts and influencers to share their expertise and experience through panel discussions, exhibits, cultural events and side events. Considering the sheer size of the guest list, all these no doubt involved considerable resources and accounts.

This year, key issues included the Global Stocktake, funding arrangements of the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27, adoption of a Global Goal on Adaptation, Mitigation Work Programme, Just Transition, climate finance and carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. 

Long-time COP attendees observe that this year’s conference agenda was distinctively leaner compared to years past, even though the issues being discussed have become more interdependent and complex. 

The reduction in the agenda is largely due to the fact that the implementation rulebook of the Paris Agreement was mostly concluded at COP24 back in 2018 at Katowice, Poland. Residual issues such as transparency reporting tables and the rules on Article 6’s carbon markets were finalised at COP26 in Glasgow, United Kingdom, in 2021 following a year’s postponement due to the Covid pandemic. 

LESS NEGOTIATIONS, MORE ENGAGEMENT?

The spirit of the global conference also seems to have shifted away from mostly formal negotiations to engagement through pavilions and side events. During large-scale events such as COP, one can see the divide between diplomats and civil society increasing and opportunities for informal interactions between party delegates and key civil society representatives kept to a minimum. 

The appointment of COP leadership has also noticeably shifted away from the host country's Environment Minister to its Foreign Minister since Paris in 2015, then to Industry Minister in Glasgow in 2021. 

We see heads of states attending the first day or two of COP in a show of solidarity, but they are usually not ready to fully commit to concrete solutions. 

Despite the significance of this multilateral platform, members of the general public do not seem to be interested in hearing about COP or its outcomes. Some reasons could include the complexity of climate negotiations, as well as this particular conference’s reputation for being ineffective in driving real climate action. 

As we enter the decade of implementation of the Paris Agreement, is COP still relevant today? 

WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR?

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the only universal forum that negotiates on climate. All 197 countries have a voice, and decisions are taken by consensus. 

Ever since its first iteration in Berlin in 1995, COPs have been used to review what Parties (the countries who signed up) have achieved and to measure progress. They are also negotiating grounds for the next round of emissions reductions. 

Negotiators aside, however, the growing awareness of the impacts of climate change and the need for urgent action has driven up demand for COP participation from a wide spectrum of stakeholders. 

Countries and organisations have, in recent years, found it a useful platform for engaging like-minded individuals to tackle global climate problems. This should be seen positively: The COP process can be demystified, and people come away from these conferences feeling inspired to act more urgently. 

This year, Singapore sent its first official youth delegation to COP28, with participants identified from the Climate Youth Development Programme — an initiative co-led by the Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, the National Climate Change Secretariat, and the National Youth Council. This helped to strengthen partnership between the Government and the youth community in advancing climate action and sustainable development.

Singapore also actively contributed to a positive outcome for the UNFCCC and COP28, particularly in the Mitigation and Global Stocktake tracks, spearheaded by Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu and Chief Negotiator for Climate Change Joseph Teo respectively. 

SCALING DOWN TO ACHIEVE MORE

In a multilateral process, human interactions and relationships will always be vital for building trust and consensus. Few are aware that the COP process goes beyond the actual two-week conference and involves work by the UNFCCC Secretariat, together with governments and observers, throughout the year. 

Yet, calls for reform cannot simply be ignored. The Club of Rome, an informal organisation of intellectuals and business leaders, earlier this year put out a letter calling for COP to reform into smaller, more frequent meetings to keep up momentum, focus on targeted deliverables, and ensure that governments are not the only voices heard during official discussions.

Civil society in general must be able to continue to contribute substantive input to the COP process. Indeed, in order for the conference to safeguard its relevance and increase its effectiveness, it may be necessary to scale it down to levels more commonly seen in previous years, when meaningful engagement was still possible. 

Efforts must also be made to account for regional differences to ensure a just global transition. In some ways, this is being addressed through regional climate weeks held in Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific. 

Despite its somewhat bloated size, COP28 was still able to deliver advancement in the global climate regime by gaining consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. Some may argue that the language is weak, but few would deny that compromise was necessary to get an outcome from the Global Stocktake. 

COP28 shows us just how important multilateralism is in building consensus towards getting to an acceptable outcome for all. International cooperation is important for addressing global issues. We cannot do it alone. 

WALKING THE TALK

Formally negotiated outcomes that are decided at COP28 can only lay the ground for implementing climate action under the Paris Agreement. Country delegates, upon returning home, still need to convince their colleagues and citizenry that climate action needs to happen domestically. Businesses need to change the way they do things. People need to change their habits and behaviours. 

To do so, we need a mandate that is universally agreed upon at COP. Decisions made at COP can create a stronger impetus for action, because they reflect a global consensus. 

The next two years will be critical for global climate action. 

In 2024, governments are due to establish a new climate finance goal and to submit their first Biennial Transparency Reports on progress made in meeting their climate pledges, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). 

At COP30, countries are expected to submit their next set of NDCs for achievement in 2035. They must come prepared with new pledges that are economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases, and are fully aligned with the warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

COP28 saw countries agree to Azerbaijan as the host of COP29 from Nov 11-22, 2024, and Brazil as COP30 hosts from Nov 10-21, 2025. 

Ultimately, how meaningful COPs are really depends on what gets done after. These gatherings of the willing go only so far to bring us together, but it is what we do after that matters.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Melissa Low is a research fellow at the Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions in the National University of Singapore (NUS). She has participated in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties for over a decade and is an active sustainability thought leader, authoring, publishing and presenting at various forums. She is the designated contact point for NUS’ accreditation to the UNFCCC and serves on the nine-member steering committee of the Research and Independent Non-Governmental Organisation Constituency under the UNFCCC.