Commentary: North Korea electoral reform prompts speculation of Kim Jong Un grooming his daughter for succession

PRESTON, England: This year, unusually, North Korea allowed more than one candidate on the ballot for the recent local elections. Under new laws introduced in August this year, voters are now asked to choose between two candidates for North Korea’s local and regional assemblies.

Then in a second vote, they either approve or disapprove of the winning candidate by placing their ballot papers in either a green box (approve) or a red box (disapprove).

A spokesperson from South Korea’s ministry of unification dismissed the changes as an attempt to give an appearance of democracy at a time when people in North Korea are facing severe economic hardships. It was also an attempt to enhance the country’s image on the international stage.

The fact is that not only are all candidates selected by the state but also the ballot boxes are closely monitored. So there is a large amount of scepticism about the extent of this “reform”.

The results were still predictable: According to the North Korea’s state news agency, KCNA, about 99 per cent of people still voted for the approved candidates. And it appears that any democratic changes won’t alter North Korea’s dynastic power structure. Except that now it seems that Kim Jong Un is grooming a daughter, rather than a son, to be the next “Dear Leader”.

Little is known about Kim’s children. He is reported to have three: Two girls and a boy. US basketball star Denis Rodman - who has been close to the North Korean leadership - reported in 2013 that Kim had an infant daughter, Ju Ae, which would make her 11 or 12 now.

She first appeared in North Korea’s state newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, on Nov 19, 2022, accompanying Kim as he witnessed the launch of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile.

She then popped up again at North Korea’s Korean Central Television on Jan 1 this year. This time, she was inspecting nuclear warheads with her father.

The following month, she was with Kim at a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s army.

Traditionally, North Korea’s leader wields power by control of the “trinity” of the military, the party and the people. So analysts will be watching to see if Ju Ae continues on this path.

KIM JONG IL’S ASCENT TO POWER

The first leader in the Kim dynasty, Kim Il Sung, began to groom his son Kim Jong Il for power in the early 1970s when he was in his early 30s. He was named number two in the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) in the party in September 1973 and elected to the political bureau of the party’s central committee in February 1974.

Kim Jong Il spent the next few years consolidating his political power and in October 1980, at the 6th Congress of the KWP, he was officially designated as successor to his father.

In September 1991 Kim Jong Il was named as supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, while in 1992, Kim Il Sung publicly stated that his son was in charge of all internal affairs in the Democratic People’s Republic. Kim Jong Il made his first public speech in 1992.

So by 1994, when Kim Il Sung died at the age of 82, his son had been deliberately and carefully groomed with all three arms of the trinity: The army, the party and the people.

NOT AS SMOOTH A SUCCESSION FOR KIM JONG UN

But the succession was not as smooth for Kim Jong Un as his father’s death in 2011 was sudden and unexpected.

Kim Jong Il began to groom his third son for the leadership in 2002, passing over two older sons. Eldest son Kim Jong Nam was disqualified because his mother was originally from South Korea and some of her family members had defected. For a time it seemed as if second son Kim Jong Chol would be named as the successor, but it is thought he was passed over because of a lack of ambition.

There were concerns about Kim Jong Un. Under North Korea’s rigid caste system, the songbun, Ko Yong Hui, mother of Kim Jong Un was from the lowest tier, being born in Japan of Korean stock. It has been reported that Kim Jong Il tried to remove official records to obscure her inappropriate origins.

Having been educated at an international school in Switzerland, Kim Jong Un attended the National War College in Pyongyang from 2002 to 2007. Reports of Kim Jong Un being groomed for the leadership began to emerge in 2008 and in 2010 he was appointed as the equivalent of a four-star general and attended the KWP’s 65th-anniversary celebration with his father.

When Kim Jong Il died in December 2011, his son’s training had not been completed and his position was vulnerable. He moved quickly to take control of both military and party.

Over the next few years, Kim Jong Un consolidated his position with a series of purges, including that of his uncle Jang Song Thaek, who had acted as regent after Kim Jong Il’s death and was reported to have been executed by firing squad as Kim Jong Un “removed the scum” from the KWP.

KIM JU AE’S PATH TO LEADERSHIP

Because of this, Kim Jong Un is likely to be aware of the need to allow time to prepare a successor. Hence the appearance of Kim Ju Ae, despite being so young.

Last month, Kim Jong Un referred to his daughter as “Morning Star General”, prompting serious speculation among Korea-watchers. Kim Il Sung was apparently referred to as “Morning Star” in the 1920s and 1930s when he was emerging as an independence fighter when Korea was occupied by Japan.

But the big question is how easy it will be for Kim Jong Un to legitimise his daughter’s succession in a heavily patriarchal society. This will involve changing both society and state, while the idea of the Kim dynasty remains intact.

So it’s possible that this recent electoral reform is a signal that Kim Jong Un is preparing this deeply conservative country for an even bigger change ahead.

Sojin Lim is Reader in Asia Pacific Studies and Course Leader for MA North Korean Studies at the University of Central Lancashire. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.