CNA Explains: What’s happened since Myanmar’s coup 3 years ago?
The turmoil of recent years has now culminated in contrasting fortunes for the junta and the resistance.
Myanmar nationals living in Thailand hold the pictures of deposed Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi as they protest outside Myanmar's embassy in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, July 26, 2022. International outrage over Myanmar’s execution of four political prisoners is intensifying with grassroots protests and strong condemnation from world governments. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)
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Three years after Myanmar’s military seized control and ousted a democratically elected government, the junta is struggling to retain its grip on power.
What’s happened since 2021?
Here's a look at key events that led Myanmar to its current state.
Feb 1, 2021: Military coup d'etat
Soldiers arrested state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and other key leaders like president Win Myint in a morning raid.
The military accused Ms Aung San Suu Kyi and her ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party – which had been reelected in a landslide 2020 win – of electoral fraud.
A state of emergency was declared, and army chief Min Aung Hlaing seized control.
Feb 3, 2021: Civil disobedience movement
Thousands took to the streets nationwide, demanding the release of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi and for the army to recognise the election results.
Civil servants, including teachers and doctors, walked out of their jobs, refusing to work for the military.
The police announced first charges for Ms Aung San Suu Kyi – the possession of walkie-talkies without proper paperwork.
Feb 6, 2021: Large-scale protests
The police were accused of using excessive and lethal force against anti-coup demonstrations growing in strength.
The junta limited internet access and blocked social media platforms, which are major sources of independent news and for organising protests.
Feb 11, 2021: US sanctions
The United States imposed first sanctions targeting coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and other senior officials. Others including the European Union and Britain soon followed.
Feb 19, 2021: First casualty
Mya Thwate Thwate Khaing, 20, became the first casualty in the violence.
She was shot in the head as security forces dispersed rallies, and succumbed to injuries after she was taken off life support.
Feb 26, 2021: UN ambassador fired
Myanmar’s ambassador to the United Nations Kyaw Moe Tun made an emotional appeal to the General Assembly in New York.
He urged the international community to use “any means necessary” against the junta and help to “restore democracy”.
He was fired a day later by Myanmar's military rulers, but the UN continues to recognise him as the nation’s representative.
March 2021: Violence escalates
Military forces – also known as the Tatmadaw – started using airstrikes, including on villages, a tactic that continues even today.
April 16, 2021: Formation of NUG
On the resistance front, ousted lawmakers and other individuals formed the shadow National Unity Government (NUG).
It commands sizable support from the public and maintains diplomatic relations with foreign governments.
Its armed wing, the People’s Defence Force formed by volunteer civilian fighters, attacks junta targets and says it is capable of manufacturing its own weapons.
April 24, 2021: Political breakthrough … or not
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders and General Min Aung Hlaing agreed on a peace plan, known as the Five-Point Consensus.
It was hoped this would be the first milestone to end the crisis.
However, the junta has since refused to act on the plan, insisting on implementing its own peace roadmap – which involves holding elections. None has been held so far.
August 2021: Death toll rises
Gen Min Aung Hlaing formed a caretaker government and appointed himself prime minister.
The death toll of civilians killed since the coup crossed 1,000, according to human rights group the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP).
October 2021: Junta barred from ASEAN meet
In a rare move, ASEAN leaders agreed to exclude Gen Min Aung Hlaing from the regional bloc’s annual summit.
It was unprecedented as the 10-member grouping traditionally avoids interfering in its members' affairs.
Until today, Myanmar’s ruling generals remain barred from key meetings over their failure to make progress on the agreed peace plan.
December 2022: Aung San Suu Kyi’s trials conclude
Aung San Suu Kyi received a total of 33 years in jail at the end of her trials.
She was charged with numerous offences – including breaching the Official Secrets Act, committing electoral fraud and corruption, as well as those illegal walkie-talkies.
Oct 27, 2023: Operation 1027
The Three Brotherhood Alliance – a trio of ethnic armies – launched a major offensive against the Tatmadaw.
This was the first time ethnic armies conducted coordinated and prolonged attacks against the military.
Observers say Operation 1027, named after the date of the mission, is the biggest threat to the junta so far.
The operation has also inspired other ethnic armed groups and rebels to launch offensives against the Myanmar army.
The NUG has also publicly thrown its support behind Operation 1027.
What’s the situation in Myanmar now?
After three years of turmoil, the nation has been left in tatters.
According to the UN, about two-thirds of the country remains gripped by conflict.
Some 2.6 million people have been displaced and 18.6 million are in dire need of humanitarian aid. Millions are without access to safe shelter, food or drinking water.
The death toll remains a challenge to verify. The UN said at least 4,400 civilians have been killed, but rights groups believe actual numbers are higher as many deaths are likely to have gone unreported.
Humanitarians say they are struggling to reach those in need, with military rulers heavily restricting the delivery of aid.
International communities are calling for junta leaders to be held accountable for atrocities against civilians.
“There are killings, torture, arbitrary arrest, shelling, airstrikes, indiscriminate attacks on civilian populations,” said Mr John Quinley, director of Fortify Rights, a human rights group focused primarily on Myanmar.
“Those in command and control are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Pushing for international accountability and holding perpetrators to justice are really important.
“If there is ongoing impunity, then these crimes will happen again. If the world had held Min Aung Hlaing, who was the leader of the military during the Rohingya genocide, responsible, then you wouldn't have this military coup.”
What’s next for the junta?
Observers believe the pressure on multiple fronts, especially in recent months, could lead to the eventual collapse of the military government.
The Tatmadaw is experiencing increasing battlefield setbacks against armed ethnic alliances that are gaining momentum.
“It is evident that the regime in Nay Pyi Taw has nowhere to go,” said Professor Christopher Lamb, who was Australian ambassador to Myanmar between 1986 and 1989. “There are increasing signs of disaffection among its own forces, and an inability to hold territories they once had.”
He told CNA’s Asia First that Gen Min Aung Hlaing did not appear to have the same level of ambition compared to previous leaders such as former president Thein Sein, rendering him even more unpopular. Mr Thein Sein was a former general who led Myanmar towards democracy and served as president from 2011 to 2016.
“There isn’t the same connection to national interest that the military had established when they took over in 1962 and 1988,” said Prof Lamb, referring to previous coups.
“There's nothing but self-interest, in the eyes of the people.”
Prof Lamb cited the junta’s recent move to send a non-political representative to attend an ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Laos as a positive sign.
Up until the confab on Sunday, Myanmar’s military government had refused to send lower-level representatives to the regional bloc’s meetings, considering the ban on its leaders a snub.
“The military, for the first time, has accepted that they cannot send a political representative to ASEAN ministerial meetings. By taking this step, there are many who will see that as a sign from the military that they know that their days are numbered,” said Prof Lamb.
“It (looks) increasingly unlikely to a lot of observers that the military would be able to hold on to power. But how many people would have to lose their lives before that could become reality?”
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What’s next for the revolution?
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s civil resistance has endured despite the military’s bloody crackdowns.
“The people have remained activated across the country, with an unwavering determination to see the end of the military government and the restoration of a democratic future,” said Prof Lamb.
Mr Dustin Barter, senior research fellow at global affairs think tank ODI, said: “In the past few months, there has been a lot of gains by the revolution and the resistance. There is optimism and hope that the military can be ousted.”
He noted that Ms Aung San Suu Kyi’s absence has brought other groups to the fore of the resistance, particularly among minorities who have faced the most violence and challenges since the coup.
“Aung San Suu Kyi not in a leadership role at the moment has given a lot of space and opportunities for ethnic minority groups and emerging young leaders to really contribute towards the resistance narrative and drive the revolution,” he said.
“It is important to recognise that this is a countrywide effort, and that there is movement towards not just reinstating democracy, but pushing for a federal democratic system that devolves power as well to ethnic administrations that have been critical to Myanmar's existence for decades.”
