Muhyiddin's U-turn on Bersatu presidency unlikely to stave off future challengers, say analysts

 KUALA LUMPUR: As Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) president Muhyiddin Yassin backpedalled on his decision a day before not to defend his presidency at next year’s internal polls, the delegates at the party’s convention stood up and cheered wildly.

Several delegates were seen tightly hugging his wife Noorainee Abdul Rahman who was present at the event.

“Stay another term. Don’t disappoint them. They need you. This is for the nation. Abah must stay on,” the former prime minister relayed to the crowd what his wife purportedly said to him that made him reconsider his earlier decision.

Abah - which means father in the Malay language - refers to what Muhyiddin was popularly known as during his administration from March 2020 to August the following year.    

At the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) congress during the same weekend, deputy president Rafizi Ramli could not resist taking a dig at Muhyiddin and Bersatu.

“I just have one request from our Prime Minister. If our debates are bland today, please don’t try to perform gimmicks like Muhyiddin Yassin,” he said to howls of laughter from PKR’s delegates. 

PKR - led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as its president - is part of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which in turn forms the unity government along with Barisan Nasional and several Borneo-based parties. 

Analysts whom CNA spoke to believe that Muhyiddin’s announcement that he would not be defending his presidency in Bersatu and subsequent U-turn came on the heels of speculation that he would be challenged during the party’s internal polls next year.     

They added that while Muhyiddin was just seen as “testing” his support among the delegates, he could still expect a challenge to his presidency.     

Among names that have been bandied about to go for the top post in the party include Bersatu secretary-general Hamzah Zainuddin, vice-president Radzi Jidin, and supreme council member Azmin Ali. 

Bersatu – a splinter party of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) - is a component party of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition along with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat (Gerakan).     

MUHYIDDIN SEEN AS GAUGING SUPPORT

Analysts believe that Muhyiddin was trying to gauge the level of support he had in the party that he helped form in 2016. This comes after several Bersatu parliamentarians recently pledged support for Mr Anwar.    

Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told CNA that there were murmurs about the future direction of the party at present and that some “ambitious figures” in the party would use the timing to try their luck to gun for the top position in Bersatu. 

“Seeing this, Muhyiddin tested the water a bit in order to elicit and reaffirm open support for him, and thus stall these putative attempts,” he said, calling it a “show” by politicians and that Muhyiddin was not the first one to pull this off.  

Similarly, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan told CNA that the Bersatu supreme council’s decision to reject Muhyiddin’s announcement not to defend his presidency showed that he still had the support within the top echelon of leaders.  

“I think that is the reason why Muhyiddin made the decision in less than 24 hours. It is to test whether the party needs him and whether he still has the influence and support in the party,” said Dr Azmi. 

In a statement on Nov 24, Mr Hazmah - who is the Bersatu secretary-general as well as Leader of the Opposition - said that the party’s top leadership was unanimous in their view that Muhyiddin’s leadership was needed by the party and the country.

Political analyst Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said that Muhyiddin’s reputation as Bersatu president took a hit when its Members of Parliament (MPs) announced their support for Mr Anwar. 

“He just wants to see if people want him or are willing to come out in the open to take his position, especially at a time when Bersatu is perceived as being not so dominant. This is also as there are rumours that PAS wants to be more dominant in PN,” he said.  

A total of five parliamentarians from Bersatu have so far stated their support for Mr Anwar. 

The five are: Labuan MP Suhaili Abdul Rahman, Kuala Kangsar MP Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid, Gua Musang MP Azizi Abu Naim, Jeli MP Zahari Kechik and Bukit Gantang MP Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz.

All five said they were supporting Mr Anwar so that they could secure allocations for their respective constituencies. 

Bersatu has already suspended Mr Iskandar and Mr Suhaili for four and six years respectively, while Mr Azizi and Mr Zahari have been referred to the party’s disciplinary committee. 

Former health minister Khairy Jamaluddin who is now taking a break from politics, however, believed that Muhyiddin was sincere and ready to hand over the reins when he announced at the convention the decision not to defend his presidency but had a change of heart after being warned that the party could be split and weakened by the decision.  

“After he announced his decision, there would have been Bersatu strongmen who would have met him and told him that the party would split into two or three without him. 

“There are pro-Azmin, pro-Hamzah and pro-Peja (Faizal Azumu) camps. This is an open secret in Bersatu that they are waiting for Muhyiddin to retire, and they will go for it,” he said during his latest Keluar Sekejap podcast that was released on Tuesday (Nov 28).

Earlier this year, Muhyiddin had also offered his resignation as Bersatu president after he was charged with multiple counts of corruption and money laundering but this was rejected by the party’s supreme council then. 

Mr Khairy said that if PN won the next general election, the president of Bersatu could potentially become the prime minister of the country.  

“The value of being Bersatu president is very high,” he said. 

The next general election in Malaysia must be held by Feb 2028.  

During a press conference over the weekend, Muhyiddin appeared unhappy when asked if he had performed a gimmick at the convention. 

“I am not playing. If you were sitting up there and were listening…This is not a gimmick or children’s play,” he told the media.

WHO COULD BE THE NEXT BERSATU PRESIDENT?

Dr Azmi believed that there would be challenges to Muhyiddin’s leadership because he is considered to be weak and the reason why several parliamentarians from the party declared support for Mr Anwar. 

“His initial decision was the best decision he made. I don’t think Bersatu lacks leaders that can replace him. Muhyiddin is viewed as being very weak and I expect him to be challenged during the party polls,” he said. 

Dr Azmi added that in Malaysia, politicians must be seen as being humble and not arrogant when it comes to vying for positions. 

This was the reason no one openly supported Muhyiddin’s decision not to defend his Bersatu presidency during the party convention, he explained.

“They will make the move during the polls, which is quite some time away. It wouldn’t be seen to be polite and appropriate to challenge (Muhyiddin) during the convention,” he said.   

Local news reports have hinted that Muhyiddin and Mr Hamzah do not see eye to eye on the party’s direction, although the latter has denied this.    

According to Dr Azmi, there are two camps in Bersatu that are viewed as strong – one faction which is aligned to Mr Hamzah and the other to Mr Radzi. 

Mr Hamzah, who is Larut MP, has held the position of Home Minister while Mr Radzi who is currently MP for Putrajaya is a former Education Minister.  

Dr Azmi believed that Mr Azmin, who joined Bersatu after being sacked from PKR, will face difficulties making a challenge for the presidency because he does not have the grassroots support in Bersatu and is still considered to be an outsider in the party.

Dr Azmi also does not consider former Perak chief minister Faizal Azamu to be so influential and having clout in the party, despite holding the post of deputy president. 

Dr Awang Azman separately thinks that there might not be interest in the position of the president for now as it does not bring the position of prime minister with it considering Mr Anwar's strong position in parliament. 

“There will be a challenge next year if there are sentiments that he needs to go,” he said.

Dr Oh, on the other hand, believed there would not be any serious challenge to Muhyiddin from the party’s major leaders as they had already affirmed their support for him. 

He, however, believed that there would have been a heated contest if Muhyiddin had stepped down as many in the party felt they were qualified to take his place. 

“If the challenger could bring about a fresh and convincing change in the party’s direction, it could actually strengthen the party,” said Dr Oh. 

BERSATU LIKELY TO BE WEAKENED

Dr Awang Azman warned that Muhyiddin’s decision meant status quo for the party in terms of leadership and this could mean more of its parliamentarians following in the footsteps of those who have declared support for Mr Anwar.

“There are rumours that another few MPs could support Anwar in order to get funding for their constituencies and this would weaken Bersatu further,” he said, adding that when this happens, Muhyiddin would face even more pressure.  

In relation to its position within the PN coalition, Dr Awang Azman said that the situation Bersatu was facing now is similar to when they were in PH - where despite being the smallest party in the coalition then - they held the position of Prime Minister as well as that of other major portfolios such as the Home and Education ministries.  

Back then, Bersatu, which was led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, had only won 15 seats in parliament during the 14th general elections.    

“With this position of them having fewer seats (than PAS), it would be harder for them to keep a grip over PN, where a smaller party is seen as wanting to control a bigger party,” he said. 

PN has 74 parliamentary seats – 43 of which were won by PAS and 31 by Bersatu, the latter including those who have stated support for Mr Anwar.    

Many observers have positioned PAS as the principal party for the Malays in Malaysia, in place of UMNO. 

Dr Awang Azman believed that PAS could demand the leadership positions within PN that are currently held by Bersatu such as being chairman of the coalition or the post of opposition leader that is being held by Mr Hamzah. 

Dr Azmi noted that regardless of who is in charge of Bersatu, the numbers in PN would not change, and Bersatu needed PAS more than the other way around.  

“PAS can say that Bersatu looks very strong because of its supporters. A weak Bersatu will benefit PAS who can survive on their own,” he said.

On the bigger picture, Dr Awang Azman believed that the Muhyiddin saga showed a lack of political succession in Malaysia where there were no proper plans in place to gradually transfer power to the next echelon of leaders.    

“In general, we don’t see succession plans in most political parties in Malaysia. Whether it's Bersatu, PKR and other parties. This is a normal phenomena since the era of Dr Mahathir,” he said.      

He added: “I observe that they will not retire as long as they feel they can control the situation.”