Protecting his legacy the underlying goal in Jokowi’s penultimate State of the Nation address: Analysts
Analysts say the Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s speech clearly shows he’s keen to influence next year’s presidential election so as to push for a continuation of his policies beyond his final year in power.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo, wearing traditional attire from Tanimbar Archipelago of Maluku province, bows to parliament members before delivering his State of the Nation address on Aug 16, 2023. (Photo: Reuters/Pool/Willy Kurniawan)
JAKARTA: Unlike in previous years, Indonesian President Joko Widodo began his annual State of the Nation address on Wednesday (Aug 16) by talking about how he has no authority to determine who the presidential and vice-presidential candidates will be.
He then ended his speech given in the Indonesian parliament by emphasising that a leader must earn public trust and needs support from the nation, during which he also said the country’s next president must continue with existing policies.
Analysts interviewed by CNA said Mr Widodo’s speech clearly shows that he’s keen to play a role in next year’s election - even though the president denied doing so in his speech - and is also pushing for a continuation of his programmes beyond his final year in power.
"In general, the president wants to convey that he gives special attention to the political year 2024," said Mr Aditya Perdana, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.
"This is because that was the point that he stressed at the start while dismissing the public notion that the president is intervening in the nomination (of the presidential candidate)," he said amid reports that Jokowi is trying to meddle with the upcoming election.
Indonesia will head to the polls on Feb 14, and a new president will be sworn in eight months later.
Since the Indonesian constitution only allows a president to lead for two terms maximum, 2024 will be Mr Widodo’s last year in office.
So far, three people have been named as potential presidential candidates.
The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which Jokowi is a member, has nominated Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo as its potential presidential candidate.
Minister of Defence Prabowo Subianto has also stated his willingness to run again for the third time while former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan has also declared his intentions to run.
RUNNING A MARATHON
In his speech, Jokowi said that the future leadership will set a path forward for Indonesia’s future.
“This is not about who the president is. No, it’s not,” he added.
“The question is whether or not the future leaders are ready to work in line with what we have started today, or whether or not they are brave or consistent enough,” he said.
Mr Widodo also said that running the country is like running a marathon which requires endurance.
“We are not walking leisurely here, and we are not running a sprint either. We are running a marathon to reach a Golden Indonesia,” he added, referring to Indonesia’s centennial in 2045 where it is hoped the country would be a developed nation by that time.
Mr Perdana noted that Mr Widodo’s remarks showed that he wants to convey that whoever becomes the next president, there is already the foundation to develop Indonesia further, which he has cemented in the past 10 years.
Mr Perdana believes despite saying that he is not intervening in the presidential elections, Jokowi clearly has hopes. This shows he does want to have some say in the next presidential election, so his programmes will continue.
Mr Adi Prayitno, a politics lecturer with Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah, said Jokowi believed the traits of the next president are vital as it will determine whether the person can carry on with his programmes, especially to reach the grand target of making Indonesia a developed country by its 2045 centennial.
Analysts cited how Jokowi had especially emphasised his infrastructure and downstreaming programmes where commodities are processed locally to give higher added value.
“Whoever will be the next president will be someone who can gain an advantage of the situation to make Indonesia a developed country,” said Mr Prayitno.
“That is why he talked about downstreaming, and infrastructure because that is a precondition, the foundation to make Indonesia developed, and Jokowi has built it.”
The downstreaming policy requires minerals to be processed in Indonesia to give higher added value before it is sold or exported.
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE ECONOMY
Jokowi also revealed the state budget for 2024 of 3,304.1 trillion rupiah (US$216.24 billion), which is about 6 per cent higher than this year’s spending plan.
He forecasted that the economic growth next year would be 5.2 per cent since he noted that the growth in the last seven quarters had been more than 5 per cent.
The Indonesian president also gave forecast that the inflation would come in at 2.8 per cent next year. Last month, the inflation rate was 3.1 per cent.
Jakarta-based economist Bhima Yudhistira from Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) believed the budget was optimistic.
He also said the projected inflation rate is an optimistic target, considering how the El Nino weather phenomenon set to hit the region from September could impact food production and security.
"There are several things that are still quite optimistic, even though the growth in China, Indonesia's main trading partner, may be around 4.7 percent.
"But we are optimistic. There will be questions about what the strategy would be to reach that goal. Meanwhile, some policies he outlined are populist.”
For instance, he pointed to Mr Widodo’s announcement that civil servants would be getting a pay rise of 8 per cent.
Mr Yudhistira said the budget is optimistic as the election is nearing, and Jokowi wants to leave a legacy.
“There’s also a need to get support from the business world so that the Indonesian economy can still be maintained amidst global uncertainty. This optimism is what we want to turn into hope for investors and business people.”
Read this story in Bahasa Indonesia here.
