India election: Modi eyes gains in southern states to secure goal of 400-seat majority

SOUTH INDIA: India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) dominates the nation’s north, west, and east, having won 303 out of 543 seats in the last general election.

Surveys and polls largely suggest a repeat performance this time round.

But it is the five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Telangana that are in sharp focus during this year’s polls. The second phase of the world’s largest election opened on Friday (Apr 26).

For Mr Modi to realise his ambitious target of 400 seats, the BJP needs to secure unprecedented gains in the South. Yet, apart from Karnataka, the other states have mostly resisted the Modi appeal.

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Collectively, they make up 129 seats – nearly 25 per cent of the lower house. The BJP won just 29 of those seats in the last election.

Prime Minister Modi has been on a push to breach the fortress of South India with a campaign blitz of more than 20 visits to the region in the past four months.

FIGHT FOR TAMIL NADU SEATS

At the epicentre of Mr Modi’s southern push is Coimbatore region in Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has thrown its weight behind its prize fighter K Annamalai. 

The 39-year-old left the prestigious position of a police officer to join politics – a move that Mr Modi said made him appealing.

Also an engineer with an MBA from an elite Indian school, Mr Annamalai’s meteoric rise saw him become the BJP’s youngest president in Tamil Nadu, which has 39 seats – the most in the South. 

“At this point in time, BJP Tamil Nadu needs me. My job is to put in my heart and soul and grow the party. (I am) nobody without Modi. So we are messengers of Modi, who carry Modi to the field and ground,” Mr Annamalai said.

He is one of thousands of young recruits the BJP enlisted in the past few years to appeal to younger voters. 

“(Annamalai) is bringing hope to the youngsters that change can happen in Tamil Nadu,” said Dr D Rajasekhar, state vice president of the BJP youth wing.

Mr Annamalai faces the uphill task of defeating two candidates from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) – the BJP’s ally in the last election – and the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Both are regional parties which have dominated for decades.

One of contenders is another young politician, 36-year-old G Ramachandran.

“I am zero per cent concerned about them (BJP) because Tamil Nadu is a ground where we will not allow people who don’t align with our ideologies,” said the AIADMK candidate. 

CLASH OF IDEOLOGIES

Ideology is at the heart of the battle for the South. The regional parties belong to the Dravidian ideology that, in essence, brought natives of South India together as an identity. 

Unlike the BJP’s Hindu nationalism, which is seen to be about Hinduism or Hindi, Dravidian parties, at different times in history, have preached a nationalism specific to the South in order to protect its culture, languages and interests. 

To different degrees, the regional parties have accused first the Congress, and more recently, the BJP, of trying to impose the Hindi language on the South. 

A 2019 tweet by India’s Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah of the BJP made the case that it is extremely important for the nation to have one language, and that Hindi is best suited for India’s identity recognition globally.

Mr Annamalai disagreed with the notion, defending Mr Modi as an inclusive leader.

“We don't believe in one language as a common language. This is only in perception,” he said. “I’d like to correct anybody who is carrying this myth because Modi is a true pan-India leader. This election will put an end to the so-called north-south fault line once and for all.”

BATTLE FOR KERALA SEATS

In the neighbouring state of Kerala, where the BJP has never won a lower house seat, leader of the main opposition Congress party Rahul Gandhi has similar issues with Mr Modi and his party.

“The BJP wants to impose one history, one nation, one language on the people of India,” said Mr Gandhi, who is defending his seat in Wayanad district.

His senior party colleague, Dr Shashi Tharoor, will be facing Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar in state capital Trivandrum.

Mr Tharoor said, “We see ourselves as a country of great diversities united in a common nation, whereas the BJP has a Hindi, Hindutva, Hindustan ideology, which reduces the majesty of an inclusive faith like Hinduism into intolerance … the South is broadly united against the BJP’s approach.”

Mr Chandrasekhar said: “Despite Tharoor having won three terms, there are ample signs of negligence. For a long time, the voters of South India have been poisoned … The reality is that Modi is the person who is taking economic development, progress and opportunities to every Indian.”

The BJP’s fielding of Mr Chandrasekhar, seen as an attempt to stop Mr Tharoor from winning a fourth time, signifies how strongly the party is trying to make inroads in the South, said observers.

CAN MODI WIN THE SOUTH?

Should Mr Modi and the BJP achieve their target of 400 seats or more, the opposition alleges the diversity and secularism enshrined in the Indian constitution would be undermined and perhaps make way for a more Hindu-centrist ideology.

Mr Modi has strongly denied this and said that India’s diversity should be celebrated. 

“I spoke in Tamil at the United Nations so that the whole world knows our Tamil is the world's most ancient language,” he said during a campaign event. 

“Diversity is our power, it should be celebrated. We are a bouquet in which every flower should be seen,” Mr Modi said during an interview with Indian news agency ANI.

The task at hand for BJP is to build trust in a region where perceptions are against the party. It is not hoping to win the southern states – just unseating some regional parties would be enough – for now.